The numbers reflect Clinton’s slightly larger popular vote win over Trump and the fact that the major third-party candidate in 2016 was the Libertarian (and former Republican) Gary Johnson, as compared to the liberal Ralph Nader in 2000. 2) Win the state’s nine Electoral College votes, 1) Win the state’s 29 Electoral College votes, 2) Break unified Republican control of the state government by flipping the Florida State House, 1) Flip both U.S. Senate seats up for election, 2) Compete for the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified Republican control of the state government by flipping the Georgia State House. Iowa, Michigan, Maine) swinging sharply rightward, and other "Red" states moving leftward by at least 4 points (e.g. [16] In that election, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president George W. Bush won the Electoral College by only 4 votes. Home › Elections › 15 Key Swing States in 2020. As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point. Missing from this swing state list are familiar presidential battlegrounds like Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. Tom Murse is a former political reporter and current Managing Editor of daily paper "LNP," and weekly political paper "The Caucus," both published by LNP Media in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. ThoughtCo uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. Trump won the 2016 election by unexpectedly carrying Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sources I used: McClatchy, Teagan Goddard, Crystal Ball, Swing Left, NDRC, and election nerds I follow on Twitter. 2) Win the state’s 11 Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified Republican control of the state government by flipping one or both state legislative chambers. A Guide to Celebrity Presidential Endorsements, Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court, Cecile Richards on Mobilizing Women to Vote, The Best Way to Honor RBG Is With Your Vote, In Maine, Sara Gideon Could Help Flip the Senate, Your Guide to the 2020 Presidential Debates. the swing states, that are comprised of mixed populations (urban, suburban, rural, etc.) [29], According to a pre-election 2016 analysis, the thirteen most competitive states were Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine. The Era of the Super PAC in American Politics, voters registered Republican and Democratic. If we want to save our democracy and create a progressive America, not only will we need to remove Donald Trump from office, but we'll also need to keep the House of Representatives blue and flip the Republican Senate. To compile the list of swing states, I surveyed election experts and key election-focused organizing groups to see who they have on their swing state list. Beyond that, we’ll see that it is important to note whether these third-party or independent candidates were liberal or conservative leaning. This includes Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as safe states, … Here's why",, "Battleground States Poll - June 21, 2004", "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters", "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton", "Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy", How close were Presidential Elections? The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritizing through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits. By using ThoughtCo, you accept our, How the US Electoral College System Works, Why Puerto Rico Matters in the US Presidential Election, Importance of the US Presidential Primaries, Presidents Elected Without Winning the Popular Vote, How Political Party Convention Delegates are Chosen. The number of swing voters declines when an incumbent president is seeking a second term. — Elena Schneider, Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a total of just 10,704 votes out of some 4.7 million cast, a lightning-in-a-bottle victory over a fatally flawed opponent. A good comparison is to look at the 2000 election, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, compared to the 2016 election. Swing state (englisch für „Schwingstaat“) ist ein Begriff zu Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten, der insbesondere bei Präsidentschaftswahlkämpfen verwendet wird. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them. [9] Had the election come out closer, Romney's path to victory would probably have involved also winning Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, or Iowa, as these states had comparable margins to Colorado, and had been battlegrounds during the election. — Marc Caputo, The prospect of turning Georgia blue for the first time since 1992 is a stretch. A recession or major war could cripple Trump. It voted for the Republican nominee in 10 of the last 11 elections, with Jimmy Carter in 1976 being the last Democrat to win the state. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and gubernatorial tickets. The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect. In fact, only two people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900: Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. She's running against Captain Mark Kelly, who's the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. The latter, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is preventing us from passing bi-partisan laws, like H.R.8 requiring universal background checks, that will save American lives. Presidential campaigns focus on these states since the election is decided by electoral votes chosen by the popular vote of each state and not by a direct national popular vote. After a dropoff in turnout four years ago, Democrats came roaring back in the 2018 midterms and held strong in this year’s local elections. Even a GOP challenge to it was dismissed by SCOTUS. It should be interesting to see if the new voting districts will actually make a difference. Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer 2012 election, but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; other lightly-Republican leaning states such as North Carolina and Arizona were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012. [22] Likewise, Illinois[23] and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election, Florida and New Hampshire were key in deciding the 2000 election, and Ohio was important during the 2004 election. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also considered competitive. Likewise, analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing with Colorado and Ohio becoming less competitive, and Georgia and Arizona moving into swing state territory.[5][6][7]. and tend to flip between red and blue each election cycle. 2020 Battleground States: Where Democrats Must Fight Hard To Oust Trump | The Austin Editor, 15 Ways You Can Help Get More People Registered to Vote, 2 Sleeper Senate Races You Should Be Paying Attention To. Swing states are also sometimes referred to as battleground states. States of the Race. For Biden to win the state, Democrats will need something close to a blowout win in the Atlanta suburbs and a surge in Black voter turnout. Consider this fact: From July 2016 until Election Day in the three Rust Belt states that Trump unexpectedly picked off — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — 94 public polls were released. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. The three main 2016 third-party candidates — Johnson (Libertarian), Stein (Green), or McMullin (anti-Trump Republican independent) — do not appear to be planning to run in 2020. Yet for all of those promising signs, they’re haunted by the uneasy feeling that Trump will win anyway in November. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, © 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Who Is Donald Harris, Kamala Harris's Father? 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. 2) Win the state’s four Electoral College votes, 1) Win the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, 2) Flip control of the Republican-led Michigan State House. She's running against Theresa Greenfield. The nomination of a too-liberal or unpopular Democrat could destroy Democratic chances. Trump led in just three of them. When Are Presidential Running Mates Chosen? States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at a higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, get out the vote efforts by party organizers and debates. In 2016, the liberals were Hillary Clinton and Jill Stein (Green). 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Thom Tillis. Biden has to increase his current share among Latino voters and recapture some of the places that flipped to Trump after twice voting for President Barack Obama. So it is likely that both the Libertarian and Green parties will run different candidates. It was called Goofy Kicking Donald. They're essentially the tipping point of who's going to win the electoral college, then win the presidency," explains Swing Left National Field Director Marisa Kanof. He's running against former governor John Hickenlooper. Due to the winner-take-all style of the Electoral College, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and partisan media. — The 2020 election may effectively be decided by six crucial swing states, all of which featured margins of less than two percentage points in 2016. Our swing states are critically important in the 2020 election. — Michael Kruse, Biden has beaten Trump in nearly every public poll in Pennsylvania this year. 2008 hatte Obama in den aufgeführten Wechselstaaten gewonnen, dieses Mal wird es … Can a SCOTUS Justice Be Replaced in 2020? With the help of Swing Left—a national grassroots organization founded after the 2016 election—we can make a difference by paying attention to the 12 Super States, a.k.a. The conservatives were George W. Bush, Pat Buchanan (Reform), and Harry Browne (Libertarian). Rote Staaten und blaue Staaten ist eine in den Vereinigten Staaten gebräuchliche Unterscheidung der Bundesstaaten nach ihren politischen Mehrheiten bei der Präsidentschaftswahl.Bundesstaaten mit einer Mehrheit für den Kandidaten der Republikanischen Partei werden als rote Staaten bezeichnet, solche mit einer Mehrheit für den Kandidaten der … [10] For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former. Here are the states everyone is 99.9% positive about, that will vote Liberal or Conservative unless the Democrats nominate Michael Myers or the Republicans nuke Texas. In the last election my state of PA went for trump. That district is one of the most famous gerrymandered districts in the country. In their stead are states like Arizona and Georgia — which haven’t voted for a Democratic nominee since the 1990s — and Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a Republican in nearly a half-century. In contrast, many states with large populations such as California, Texas, and New York, have in recent elections been considered "safe" for a particular party, and therefore not a priority for campaign visits and money. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Martha McSally. For all six of these key states, the conservatives added substantially to their margin from 2000 to 2016. — Tim Alberta, It’s been so long since Minnesota voted Republican in a presidential election that many Democrats suspected a head fake when Trump first boasted about his intent to compete there. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. 2) Compete for the state’s six Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified GOP control of the state government by flipping the Iowa State House. First off, The Democratic Party has to stop thinking about ‘easy’ victories. In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for Senators and Congressional Representatives. Who Can (and Can't) Call Out Campaign Racism. But these guides are for those who specifically want to work towards flipping the White House in 2020. The first step, though, is being aware of the states that will determine the fate of our country. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is clear. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Cory Gardner. Other states like Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio will get serious attention, but the winner in all likelihood will have to carry most of the Big Six Swing States. 2) Compete for the state’s 38 Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified GOP control of the state government by flipping the Texas State House, 1) Win the state’s 10 Electoral College votes, 2) Protect Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ veto power by preventing GOP supermajorities in the Wisconsin State Senate and State Assembly, 3) Lay the groundwork to flip the state legislature in 2022. Edited by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Last month, for the first time in at least a decade, more Florida Democrats cast primary election ballots than Republicans. However, states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont, which all have Republican governors, as well as in Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas, and Montana, which currently have Democratic governors.

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